ec7fa8a17afb4ed09668ca3cba134dcd Tesla's worth and the dawn of a new era
Power The blog of the Quarterly Magazine on energy problems Tesla's worth and the dawn of a new era by Enzo Di Giulio In three months the value of the Tesla stock has almost doubled to exceed General Motors and Ford combined in capitalization, despite the sale of cars is just 2.8%. Elon Musk's company is no stranger to such volatility. How to explain it? Part of the explanation is rational and relates to real data, another is irrational and reflects the emotionality of the market.  But behind this irrational part there is perhaps more: the rationality of history, because Tesla is not just a company, but a symbol of the energy transition itself. From dust to the altar. In three months, the value of the Tesla stock has almost doubled. On 11 October 2019 the price on Wall Street was 245 dollars, on 10 January 2020 it exceeded 478. The title is not new to such variations. The first half of 2019 had been terrible for Tesla, which from 366 dollars on 14 December 2018 had plunged to 185 on 31 May '19: half the value. Then the wind of the financial markets reversed its direction by 180 degrees: gradually the ugly became acceptable, then beautiful, finally - with the surge in the last three months - beautiful. The stock collapse in the first half of 2019 was due to technical difficulties in meeting the demand for reserved cars and weak economic results; the same reasons, but in the opposite sense, explain the reversal in the second half of the year Markets are rational, says a kind of mantra of economic theory. And indeed, the fall had solid reasons behind it: the technical difficulties of production unable to meet the demand for pre-booked cars - Musk devoted himself to supervising robots even sleeping in the factory - and the weak economic results. Similarly, the same reasons - changed in sign - explain the rush at the end of the year. $ 143 million in profits in the third quarter of 2019 - compared to 1.1 billion in loss in the first half - and 112,000 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter bringing total 2019 sales to 367,500 - falling within the range of 360,000-400,000 promised by Musk - and here the markets return to reward the South African histrionic. The resurrection is also due to the foray into the Chinese and European markets with Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai (built) and Gigafactory 4 in Berlin (planned) Other pieces of explanation of Tesla's resurrection are the contemporary attack on the Chinese market, through the very rapid construction of the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, and on the European one, by means of the already designed Gigafactory 4 in Berlin. Final result: Tesla is now worth more than General Motors and Ford combined: 89 billion dollars against the 87 of GM (50) and Ford (37). The result is quite strange because if you look at the turnover you can see that the situation is reversed: that of Tesla is around 24 billion dollars while those of GM and Ford are respectively 138 and 144 billion. In other words, a company whose sales are 8% of two much larger companies is worth as much as they are! Or, if we wanted to express the comparison in terms of cars sold, Tesla, which sells 0.36 million cars, is worth as much as two historic giants of the automotive sector that sold 11 million cars in 2019 (GM: 6.3; Ford: 4, 4). Let's face it: the cars sold by Tesla are 2.8% of those sold by GM and Ford, but the capitalization is the same. Confidence is placed in expectations of future sales, especially on the Chinese market Because? The explanation goes back to the aforementioned mantra of the economy: the markets are rational and if they value Tesla so kindly there will be a reason: the price incorporates the expectations of future sales, especially on the Chinese market. All the information is contained in the price and gives it shape, would say Eugene Fama, Nobel laureate in economics in 2013 and theorist of market efficiency. Thus, information on positive third quarter data and accelerating business in China pushes the price irresistibly upward. And rightly so, because market efficiency exists precisely when information is correctly transferred at the share price. However, the fact that the transfer of information in the price is correct does not mean that the price itself is correct, that is, it reflects the fair value of the share . Another element explaining the performance of stocks is the irrational exuberance that leads to financial bubbles and market collapses As the reader may recall, in 2013 the Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics not only to Eugene Fama but also to Robert Shiller, a Yale University scholar who interpreted financial markets in a diametrically opposite way to that renowned. It is irrational exuberance - to use the happy title of one of his books - that leads the dance in the market, often bringing stock prices to levels not justified by fundamentals, thus creating the conditions for financial bubbles and consequent market collapses. More than a contradiction, there is a complementarity of the economic explanations However distant - or, even better, precisely because they are distant - the two theories of Fama and Shiller integrate well and combine to give a plausible explanation of what is happening to the Tesla title. To use an image, if information is the determinant of wind direction, it is irrational exuberance that defines its speed and inflates, little or much, the sail of a share price. The change of direction induced by the data on Tesla's positive performance in the third quarter, and the irrational exuberance of the market, have blown powerfully behind Musk's little boat enough to transform it, in a few weeks, into a very fast catamaran. As we have seen, the stock is very volatile: the market bets on it and against it very easily: it loves it and hates it. Recent history is that of a crazy love, as crazy seems to be the price reached. But behind the apparent irrationality of performance there is a broader rationality, that of history, because Tesla is not just a company in the automotive sector but one of the forms - perhaps the symbol itself - of the energy transition. Tesla is not just a company in the automotive sector but a symbol of the energy transition Behind Tesla there is a new era that pushes with power to emerge, like a ridge emerging from the ocean to progressively become dry terrain, hills, mountains, Everest. The small becomes great, David kills Goliath. The era of electric cars and autonomous driving, the era of renewables and the smart city: all this is hidden within the price of the Tesla stock. It is a story already seen, of course, because small start-ups called Google, Apple or Amazon have become the giants of today through a similar path. Stocks that were worth a dollar or two today are sailing over a thousand, making the first buyers very rich. It is the same story, of course, but up to a certain point: the value of the title soars because it faces the boundless prairies of a market that allows itself to be conquered. But putting a smartphone in the pockets of every human being is different than putting an electric car in their garage. The scale of expenditure is far greater and, at the macro level, the impact on the industrial system is considerably greater. Doing a search on the Google site or deciding to buy a product on Amazon, or even opening a page on Facebook are small choices. On the contrary, the purchase of an electric car represents an ocean crossing, not so much for the consumer - who in any case makes a choice of a certain economic consistency and abdicates the consolidated tradition of the internal combustion engine - as for what lies behind it. : a different industrial paradigm. The greater the penetration of the electric car, the less space for the internal combustion engine. What we are facing is a vigorous struggle, just starting out, between a consolidated and rich industrial paradigm and a new model of mobility. The other battle between fossil fuels and renewables takes place on a parallel arena. At the moment, it must be admitted, Davide is tiny - 0.25 is the percentage of electric cars in the world car park - and he can do little in front of the giant Goliath. But history, as we know, is dynamic: the small becomes great and the great becomes small. The dizzying slope of the Tesla stock trend tells us that there is a new era that forcefully knocks on the door of history and tries to open up and conquer markets that are still timid, however immense. The € 1.8 billion agreement between FCA and Tesla shows us how environmental regulation can shift the balance between companies The new environmental sensitivity and a progressively more favorable regulation help it. The agreement between FCA and Tesla that allows the former to purchase CO 2 credits from the latter for the monstrous figure of 1.8 billion euros - thus allowing it to comply with the new EU regulation on emissions (95grCO 2 / km) - it shows us how environmental regulation can shift the balance between companies. Therefore, the Tesla title reflects not only the effort of a young company trying to conquer the markets but a broader battle that represents a hub in the history of civilization. This also explains the rises and falls of its share price, its remarkable volatility. The uncertainty of the market is associated with that of history. And ironically, a third source of indeterminacy is added, being Tesla the daughter of a visionary man, very unique, unorthodox in dialogue with the markets, over the top communicator. Thus, if David will bring down Goliath, in many years the epic of the new dominant paradigm - electric and digital - could be remembered more than for the lithium battery for a visionary and dreamer man than in a kaleidoscopic pinwheel of flamethrowers, cars shot in space. , interviews with attached whiskey and joint, dreamed of freeing the world from the internal combustion engine and colonizing space. The next Tesla will have the spring motor This is the project that Elon Musk's company is working on.  “It is the most ecological”.  While to combat methane emissions, a startup patented the cow with the cap The green economy knows no borders.  By contradicting Lavoisier's old principle (developed in the eighteenth century and therefore obsolete) "nothing is created, nothing is destroyed", the modern economy, thanks to the prodigious advances in technology, guarantees that everything can be created from nothing.  The Capra e Cavoli association, which is involved in converting anti-personnel mine factories, coal mines and fryers in Cairo into green companies, ensures that success is just around the corner: develop ... The green economy knows no borders.  By contradicting Lavoisier's old principle (developed in the eighteenth century and therefore obsolete) "nothing is created, nothing is destroyed", the modern economy, thanks to the prodigious advances in technology, guarantees that everything can be created from nothing.  The Capra e Cavoli association, which is involved in converting anti-personnel mine factories, coal mines and fryers in Cairo into green companies, ensures that success is around the corner: unlimited development, zero environmental costs. Optimism "It is time for optimism - explains the neo-creationist philosopher Karl Lamatria, animator of the Oplà Foundation - as long as we follow the example of God, who made everything appear out of nothing.  It is a bit like the rabbit that comes out of the magician's hat.  Where did that rabbit come from?  From nothing!  It wasn't there before, now here it is!  Easy, right?  Just believe!". The spring car The spring motor, very common in children's toys, was abandoned too quickly because it was considered, wrongly, rudimentary.  Now it has been perfected to the point that it will soon be put into production by Tesla, as always at the forefront, and is destined to supplant the electric car as well.  Just recharge it during the night, preferably with the help of the whole family, by turning the large key that holds the spring for a couple of hours.  "We still have some power dosage problems - explains the project leader, Tim Bakoon - because as soon as the spring is released, the car reaches six hundred per hour and pierces the walls of the neighbors' houses, while towards the end of the charge it proceeds step by step. snail, moaning and creaking.  But do not worry, a computer, also spring-loaded, will take care of balancing the power output of the horses ".  Tesla is thinking about the self-driving spring car, but for now there are no artificial intelligences willing to collaborate. The perpetual motion Utopia of every era, thanks to the green economy will soon be a reality.  The drift of the planets, the trend of the tides, the changes in the political position of the parliamentarians of the Mixed Group are all well-known and much studied examples of perpetual motion.  Soon from those studies, with some improvement, it will be possible to produce perpetual motion even in small quantities, for domestic use.  Available on Amazon, the product will be able to arrive at your home on its own.  The tricky thing will be to convince him to stop: he doesn't have the off button. Cow with a cap It is a tiny startup founded by two Italian guys, Nicola Pasquale and Pasquale Nicola, who will finally be able to solve the problem of methane emissions in intensive farms.  A simple cap, inserted in cows, sheep, pigs, will avoid the harmful flatulence that concern environmentalists so much.  The breeders are happy, also because the animals double their size in a week.  The problem of frequent cow explosions does not scare the inventors of the device.  Pets may be equipped with a relief valve, such as pressure cookers.  To those who point out that this would not prevent the dispersion of methane in the atmosphere, Nicola and Pasquale reply, with a smile, that you cannot have everything at once. Glider charter The enormous fuel consumption, with consequent toxic emissions, linked to the exorbitant air traffic, will soon be just a memory.  Thanks to the glider charter: dragged at high altitude thanks to a hot air balloon, the giant glider will then be released and, depending on the winds, it will be able to glide in Ibiza, Mykonos, Paris, or even in the open ocean, without consuming a single drop of kerosene. .  There are many travel agencies that are launching the Surprise Destination: surprise holidays, on boarding you don't know where you will land, and especially if you will be able to do so. https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/news/watch-tesla-s-fsd-beta-in-detroit-is-version-10-12-2-the-best-yet/ar-AAY6Hlq




Power

The blog of the Quarterly Magazine on energy problems






Tesla's worth and the dawn of a new era


by Enzo Di Giulio



In three months the value of the Tesla stock has almost doubled to exceed General Motors and Ford combined in capitalization, despite the sale of cars is just 2.8%. Elon Musk's company is no stranger to such volatility. How to explain it? Part of the explanation is rational and relates to real data, another is irrational and reflects the emotionality of the market.  But behind this irrational part there is perhaps more: the rationality of history, because Tesla is not just a company, but a symbol of the energy transition itself.

From dust to the altar. In three months, the value of the Tesla stock has almost doubled. On 11 October 2019 the price on Wall Street was 245 dollars, on 10 January 2020 it exceeded 478.

The title is not new to such variations. The first half of 2019 had been terrible for Tesla, which from 366 dollars on 14 December 2018 had plunged to 185 on 31 May '19: half the value.

Then the wind of the financial markets reversed its direction by 180 degrees: gradually the ugly became acceptable, then beautiful, finally - with the surge in the last three months - beautiful.

The stock collapse in the first half of 2019 was due to technical difficulties in meeting the demand for reserved cars and weak economic results; the same reasons, but in the opposite sense, explain the reversal in the second half of the year

Markets are rational, says a kind of mantra of economic theory. And indeed, the fall had solid reasons behind it: the technical difficulties of production unable to meet the demand for pre-booked cars - Musk devoted himself to supervising robots even sleeping in the factory - and the weak economic results.

Similarly, the same reasons - changed in sign - explain the rush at the end of the year. $ 143 million in profits in the third quarter of 2019 - compared to 1.1 billion in loss in the first half - and 112,000 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter bringing total 2019 sales to 367,500 - falling within the range of 360,000-400,000 promised by Musk - and here the markets return to reward the South African histrionic.

The resurrection is also due to the foray into the Chinese and European markets with Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai (built) and Gigafactory 4 in Berlin (planned)

Other pieces of explanation of Tesla's resurrection are the contemporary attack on the Chinese market, through the very rapid construction of the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, and on the European one, by means of the already designed Gigafactory 4 in Berlin.

Final result: Tesla is now worth more than General Motors and Ford combined: 89 billion dollars against the 87 of GM (50) and Ford (37). The result is quite strange because if you look at the turnover you can see that the situation is reversed: that of Tesla is around 24 billion dollars while those of GM and Ford are respectively 138 and 144 billion.

In other words, a company whose sales are 8% of two much larger companies is worth as much as they are! Or, if we wanted to express the comparison in terms of cars sold, Tesla, which sells 0.36 million cars, is worth as much as two historic giants of the automotive sector that sold 11 million cars in 2019 (GM: 6.3; Ford: 4, 4). Let's face it: the cars sold by Tesla are 2.8% of those sold by GM and Ford, but the capitalization is the same.

Confidence is placed in expectations of future sales, especially on the Chinese market

Because? The explanation goes back to the aforementioned mantra of the economy: the markets are rational and if they value Tesla so kindly there will be a reason: the price incorporates the expectations of future sales, especially on the Chinese market.

All the information is contained in the price and gives it shape, would say Eugene Fama, Nobel laureate in economics in 2013 and theorist of market efficiency. Thus, information on positive third quarter data and accelerating business in China pushes the price irresistibly upward. And rightly so, because market efficiency exists precisely when information is correctly transferred at the share price. However, the fact that the transfer of information in the price is correct does not mean that the price itself is correct, that is, it reflects the fair value of the share .

Another element explaining the performance of stocks is the irrational exuberance that leads to financial bubbles and market collapses

As the reader may recall, in 2013 the Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics not only to Eugene Fama but also to Robert Shiller, a Yale University scholar who interpreted financial markets in a diametrically opposite way to that renowned.

It is irrational exuberance - to use the happy title of one of his books - that leads the dance in the market, often bringing stock prices to levels not justified by fundamentals, thus creating the conditions for financial bubbles and consequent market collapses.

More than a contradiction, there is a complementarity of the economic explanations

However distant - or, even better, precisely because they are distant - the two theories of Fama and Shiller integrate well and combine to give a plausible explanation of what is happening to the Tesla title. To use an image, if information is the determinant of wind direction, it is irrational exuberance that defines its speed and inflates, little or much, the sail of a share price. The change of direction induced by the data on Tesla's positive performance in the third quarter, and the irrational exuberance of the market, have blown powerfully behind Musk's little boat enough to transform it, in a few weeks, into a very fast catamaran.

As we have seen, the stock is very volatile: the market bets on it and against it very easily: it loves it and hates it. Recent history is that of a crazy love, as crazy seems to be the price reached. But behind the apparent irrationality of performance there is a broader rationality, that of history, because Tesla is not just a company in the automotive sector but one of the forms - perhaps the symbol itself - of the energy transition.

Tesla is not just a company in the automotive sector but a symbol of the energy transition

Behind Tesla there is a new era that pushes with power to emerge, like a ridge emerging from the ocean to progressively become dry terrain, hills, mountains, Everest. The small becomes great, David kills Goliath. The era of electric cars and autonomous driving, the era of renewables and the smart city: all this is hidden within the price of the Tesla stock.

It is a story already seen, of course, because small start-ups called Google, Apple or Amazon have become the giants of today through a similar path. Stocks that were worth a dollar or two today are sailing over a thousand, making the first buyers very rich. It is the same story, of course, but up to a certain point: the value of the title soars because it faces the boundless prairies of a market that allows itself to be conquered. But putting a smartphone in the pockets of every human being is different than putting an electric car in their garage. The scale of expenditure is far greater and, at the macro level, the impact on the industrial system is considerably greater.

Doing a search on the Google site or deciding to buy a product on Amazon, or even opening a page on Facebook are small choices. On the contrary, the purchase of an electric car represents an ocean crossing, not so much for the consumer - who in any case makes a choice of a certain economic consistency and abdicates the consolidated tradition of the internal combustion engine - as for what lies behind it. : a different industrial paradigm.

The greater the penetration of the electric car, the less space for the internal combustion engine. What we are facing is a vigorous struggle, just starting out, between a consolidated and rich industrial paradigm and a new model of mobility. The other battle between fossil fuels and renewables takes place on a parallel arena. At the moment, it must be admitted, Davide is tiny - 0.25 is the percentage of electric cars in the world car park - and he can do little in front of the giant Goliath.

But history, as we know, is dynamic: the small becomes great and the great becomes small. The dizzying slope of the Tesla stock trend tells us that there is a new era that forcefully knocks on the door of history and tries to open up and conquer markets that are still timid, however immense.

The € 1.8 billion agreement between FCA and Tesla shows us how environmental regulation can shift the balance between companies

The new environmental sensitivity and a progressively more favorable regulation help it. The agreement between FCA and Tesla that allows the former to purchase CO 2 credits from the latter for the monstrous figure of 1.8 billion euros - thus allowing it to comply with the new EU regulation on emissions (95grCO 2 / km) - it shows us how environmental regulation can shift the balance between companies.

Therefore, the Tesla title reflects not only the effort of a young company trying to conquer the markets but a broader battle that represents a hub in the history of civilization. This also explains the rises and falls of its share price, its remarkable volatility. The uncertainty of the market is associated with that of history. And ironically, a third source of indeterminacy is added, being Tesla the daughter of a visionary man, very unique, unorthodox in dialogue with the markets, over the top communicator.

Thus, if David will bring down Goliath, in many years the epic of the new dominant paradigm - electric and digital - could be remembered more than for the lithium battery for a visionary and dreamer man than in a kaleidoscopic pinwheel of flamethrowers, cars shot in space. , interviews with attached whiskey and joint, dreamed of freeing the world from the internal combustion engine and colonizing space.




The next Tesla will have the spring motor

This is the project that Elon Musk's company is working on.  “It is the most ecological”.  While to combat methane emissions, a startup patented the cow with the cap



The green economy knows no borders.  By contradicting Lavoisier's old principle (developed in the eighteenth century and therefore obsolete) "nothing is created, nothing is destroyed", the modern economy, thanks to the prodigious advances in technology, guarantees that everything can be created from nothing.  The Capra e Cavoli association, which is involved in converting anti-personnel mine factories, coal mines and fryers in Cairo into green companies, ensures that success is just around the corner: develop ...



The green economy knows no borders.  By contradicting Lavoisier's old principle (developed in the eighteenth century and therefore obsolete) "nothing is created, nothing is destroyed", the modern economy, thanks to the prodigious advances in technology, guarantees that everything can be created from nothing.  The Capra e Cavoli association, which is involved in converting anti-personnel mine factories, coal mines and fryers in Cairo into green companies, ensures that success is around the corner: unlimited development, zero environmental costs.

Optimism "It is time for optimism - explains the neo-creationist philosopher Karl Lamatria, animator of the Oplà Foundation - as long as we follow the example of God, who made everything appear out of nothing.  It is a bit like the rabbit that comes out of the magician's hat.  Where did that rabbit come from?  From nothing!  It wasn't there before, now here it is!  Easy, right?  Just believe!".

The spring car The spring motor, very common in children's toys, was abandoned too quickly because it was considered, wrongly, rudimentary.  Now it has been perfected to the point that it will soon be put into production by Tesla, as always at the forefront, and is destined to supplant the electric car as well.  Just recharge it during the night, preferably with the help of the whole family, by turning the large key that holds the spring for a couple of hours.  "We still have some power dosage problems - explains the project leader, Tim Bakoon - because as soon as the spring is released, the car reaches six hundred per hour and pierces the walls of the neighbors' houses, while towards the end of the charge it proceeds step by step. snail, moaning and creaking.  But do not worry, a computer, also spring-loaded, will take care of balancing the power output of the horses ".  Tesla is thinking about the self-driving spring car, but for now there are no artificial intelligences willing to collaborate.

The perpetual motion Utopia of every era, thanks to the green economy will soon be a reality.  The drift of the planets, the trend of the tides, the changes in the political position of the parliamentarians of the Mixed Group are all well-known and much studied examples of perpetual motion.  Soon from those studies, with some improvement, it will be possible to produce perpetual motion even in small quantities, for domestic use.  Available on Amazon, the product will be able to arrive at your home on its own.  The tricky thing will be to convince him to stop: he doesn't have the off button.

Cow with a cap It is a tiny startup founded by two Italian guys, Nicola Pasquale and Pasquale Nicola, who will finally be able to solve the problem of methane emissions in intensive farms.  A simple cap, inserted in cows, sheep, pigs, will avoid the harmful flatulence that concern environmentalists so much.  The breeders are happy, also because the animals double their size in a week.  The problem of frequent cow explosions does not scare the inventors of the device.  Pets may be equipped with a relief valve, such as pressure cookers.  To those who point out that this would not prevent the dispersion of methane in the atmosphere, Nicola and Pasquale reply, with a smile, that you cannot have everything at once.

Glider charter The enormous fuel consumption, with consequent toxic emissions, linked to the exorbitant air traffic, will soon be just a memory.  Thanks to the glider charter: dragged at high altitude thanks to a hot air balloon, the giant glider will then be released and, depending on the winds, it will be able to glide in Ibiza, Mykonos, Paris, or even in the open ocean, without consuming a single drop of kerosene. .  There are many travel agencies that are launching the Surprise Destination: surprise holidays, on boarding you don't know where you will land, and especially if you will be able to do so.



https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/news/watch-tesla-s-fsd-beta-in-detroit-is-version-10-12-2-the-best-yet/ar-AAY6Hlq






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